Economic Review – August 2019

Our monthly economic review is intended to provide background to recent developments in investment markets as well as to give an indication of how some key issues could impact in the future.

Overview

EMPLOYMENT AT NEW RECORD HIGH

The latest batch of employment data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that the UK labour market remains in robust health, with the total number of people in work rising to another record high.

RETAIL SALES RISE

The latest retail sales figures proved to be stronger than analysts expected, buoyed by the largest rise in online spending for three years.

MARKETS

In August, trade tensions between the US and China continued to weigh on sentiment. Statements from President Trump and China’s commerce ministry on 29 August, detailing that the countries were engaged in trade talks, brought some respite to global equities at the end of the month. US equities climbed alongside Eur opean and Asian stocks on the final trading day.

INFLATION RISES UNEXPECTEDLY

The headline rate of inflation edged above the Bank of England’s (BoE) target last month, amid concerns sterling’s recent decline could exert further pressure on prices.

BREXIT SAGA RUMBLES ON

With the second deadline now less than 60 days away, it remains unclear how the Brexit saga is ultimately going to play out, although the chance of a no-deal scenario continues to rise.