Economic Review – November 2018

Our monthly economic review is intended to provide background to recent developments in investment markets as well as to give an indication of how some key issues could impact in the future.

Overview

MAY’S BREXIT D-DAY LOOMS

After 20 months of negotiations Theresa May finally secured a deal on the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU; but whether she has sufficient parliamentary support for her deal remains to be seen.

BREXIT HOLDS MONETARY POLICY KEY

Recent comments from the Bank of England (BoE) firmly reinforce the message that near-term monetary policy will be inextricably linked to Brexit.

MARKETS

European stocks closed lower at the end of November, recording a second consecutive monthly loss. Weak data from China hit investor confidence ahead of the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires; where trade developments between China and the US were a key focal point.

ECONOMY GROWS STRONGLY BUT SLOWDOWN EXPECTED

The latest data shows the UK economy recorded its fastest rate of growth in almost two years during the third quarter, although it also provided worrying signs of an imminent slowdown.

MILD AUTUMN HITS RETAIL SALES

The latest retail sales statistics proved to be weaker than expected while early indications suggest Black Friday sales were down on last year ’s levels.