Economic Review – November 2019

Although the UK economy did expand during the third quarter, thereby avoiding recession, growth was weaker than expected with the annual rate of expansion the slowest in almost a decade.

Official statistics show that the rate of inflation in the UK has fallen to its lowest level in nearly three years, principally due to the impact of the energy price cap which has pushed down the cost of electricity and gas.

At the end of November, several major global markets closed in positive territory. However, some indices edged away from previous highs in the month as doubts set in over the outlook for signing a deal to ease US-China trade tensions.

The probability of a reduction in interest rates has increased after two members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unexpectedly voted to lower the bank rate following its latest meeting.

The latest public sector finance statistics confirm government borrowing is on an upward trajectory even before any of the prospective election spending pledges announced by politicians have been implemented.