Economic Review – September 2020

Our monthly economic review is intended to provide background to recent developments in investment markets as well as to give an indication of how some key issues could impact in the future.

Overview

WINTER ECONOMY PLAN

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has set out a series of revamped measures designed to halt job losses and stem business failures as part of his Winter Economy Plan.

LOCKDOWN RECOVERY FEARS

Although the latest gross domestic product (GDP) statistics confirm the UK economy staged a recovery over the summer months, there are growing fears that tighter coronavirus restrictions will inevitably hit future growth prospects.

MARKETS

It was a mixed picture for many global benchmarks in September. At the tail end of the month, a rising number of virus cases and a tumultuous first US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden, caused some unease. The last day of the quarter also brought better-than-expected US jobs data, whilst positive manufacturing and services data from China highlighted that economic recovery for the world’s second largest economy is firmly on track.

INFLATION FALLS SHARPLY

An unprecedented decline in the cost of dining out helped push down the UK’s headline rate of inflation to its lowest level since December 2015.

NEGATIVE RATE DEBATE

Discussions surrounding the potential effectiveness of sub-zero interest rates continued last month as the BoE made it clear it is not ruling them out.